Machine learning and mathematics for systematic trading

StatBit Alpha builds high- and mid-frequency trading strategies with state-of-the-art deep learning, statistical machine learning and mathematical models, and tests every one of them as if trying to break it.

A model doesn't predict one price. It predicts a distribution. Simulated illustration.
Mid-frequency strategies: in live shadow trading, launching soon High-frequency stack: in development

Two speeds, one research engine

We work at two ends of the time spectrum. The data, models and engineering change completely between them, but the research discipline behind both is the same.

Mid-frequency trading

Launching soon

Strategies that hold positions for minutes to days, built on signals that are statistically robust rather than merely fast.

  • Statistical arbitrage and relative-value signals
  • Cross-sectional ranking models across many instruments
  • Regime-aware intraday momentum and mean reversion
  • Portfolio construction under explicit risk budgets

High-frequency trading

In development

A low-latency stack that reads the order book directly and reacts in milliseconds. It is rolling out soon.

  • Order book dynamics and order-flow imbalance signals
  • Deep learning models trained on raw order book data
  • Fill-probability and queue-position modelling
  • Execution logic designed around a strict latency budget

Explore the time spectrum

Drag the slider to see how the data, models and hardest problem change as the holding period gets longer.

Data we use
Models
Where the edge comes from
The hardest problem

State-of-the-art models, chosen for the problem

We don't pick a model because it's fashionable. Each one earns its place by beating simpler alternatives on data it has never seen.

Transformer sequence models

Attention-based architectures for multi-horizon forecasting, learning which parts of market history matter for what comes next.

Deep order book models

Convolutional and recurrent networks that learn features directly from raw limit order book snapshots instead of hand-crafted indicators.

Temporal convolutional networks

Fast, parallel sequence models suited to the tight inference budgets of short-horizon trading.

Representation learning

Pre-training on large volumes of unlabelled market data so downstream models start from a richer view of market state.

From raw data to a live strategy

Every idea follows the same path. Most never make it past validation, and that is the point.

  1. Data

    Clean, versioned market datasets with full lineage, so every result can be reproduced.

  2. Features

    Signals engineered from prices, volumes and order flow, plus features learned by deep models.

  3. Models

    Candidates from all three model families compete against simple baselines.

  4. Validation

    Walk-forward tests, purged cross-validation, realistic costs and crisis stress tests.

  5. Shadow trading

    The strategy runs live on real-time data in a production-identical environment before any capital is committed.

  6. Monitoring

    Live behaviour is compared against test expectations, with automatic alerts on any drift.

We test strategies like we're trying to break them

A backtest that looks perfect is usually a warning sign. Our testing is built to find the reasons a strategy will fail before the market does.

  • Walk-forward validationModels are always judged on data from after their training period, rolling forward through time.
  • Purged, embargoed cross-validationGaps between training and test data stop information from leaking into results.
  • Realistic costs and slippageFees, spreads and market impact are simulated, so results reflect what trading would really cost.
  • Crisis stress testingEvery strategy is replayed through extreme periods such as 2008, March 2020 and the 2022 rate shock.
  • Live shadow tradingBefore going live, strategies trade in real time against live market data in a production-identical environment, so we see exactly how they behave without risking capital.

Try it: why validation matters

Increase the model's complexity. It fits the past better and better, then reveal data it has never seen.

Error on past data–
Error on unseen datahidden

Risk management is built in, not bolted on

Every strategy we deploy runs inside the same risk framework. It decides how much we can lose before any model decides how much we might make.

Stress test our risk controls

Pick a market shock and watch the controls respond.

With our risk controls Without risk controls Loss limit
Peak volatility–
Position cut to–
Worst loss with controls–
Without controls–

Simulated illustration of how the controls behave. Not actual trading results.

  • Volatility targetingPosition sizes shrink automatically as markets become more volatile, keeping risk roughly constant.
  • Hard loss limits with a kill switchIf losses reach a preset limit, the strategy stops trading automatically. No discretion, no exceptions.
  • Position and exposure limitsCaps per instrument, per sector and in total, enforced before every order.
  • Pre-trade order checksEvery order is checked for size, price and frequency before it reaches the market.
  • Real-time monitoring and drift alertsLive behaviour is compared with tested behaviour continuously, and any divergence raises an alert.

Infrastructure built for research speed

A cloud-native stack lets us move from an idea to a fully tested strategy quickly, and scale compute when a problem demands it.

Cloud compute

Elastic CPU and GPU capacity on AWS for large backtests and deep learning training runs.

Modern Python stack

PyTorch for deep learning, Polars for fast columnar data processing, and scikit-learn for classical models.

Reproducible research

Versioned data, tracked experiments and code under version control, so any result can be rebuilt.

Low-latency execution

A purpose-built execution layer for our high-frequency stack, currently in development.

Let's talk

We're early, technical and building every layer ourselves: research, infrastructure and risk. That's the best time to get involved. Follow our progress on LinkedIn.

For investors

If you back quantitative teams at the earliest stage, we'd like to walk you through our research process, our risk framework and our roadmap for mid- and high-frequency trading.

  • A technical walkthrough of how we build and test strategies
  • Our risk framework, in detail
  • Our launch plan for both trading desks

For researchers

If you think in distributions, enjoy hard data problems and want your models to meet real markets, we want to hear from you.

  • Open roles for quant researchers and developers
  • Research collaborations in machine learning for markets
  • Problems at both millisecond and multi-day horizons